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Tuesday, December 30, 2014

2015 will be crucial for NAMO

There is little doubt that one man dominated 2014 in India: Narendra Modi. But can he dominate 2015 as well? On recent form, we can't be sure.

Let us first list his achievements so far. After a spectacular victory in May 2014, the Prime minister has been winning election after election for his party - the most recent one being Jharkhand - and has also restored the primacy of the PMO in policy matters. He is not justprimus inter pares, but numero uno in all things that matter in this government. He has made waves in foreign policy, which is probably his most successful side so far. He has also made good changes in defence and railway leadership, with the induction of Manohar Parikkar and Suresh Prabhu as cabinet ministers.

Otherwise, the promise of his government exceeds performance by a wide margin. Modi has, for example, announced some bold policy initiatives (Make in India, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, et al), and pushed through some modestlegislation through parliament (the judges appointments bill, some minor labour law changes, and the small factories bill). Regulations (environment, etc) that can be changed by executive fiat are, however, being changed quickly, and their impact will be considerable in the years to come.However, operative words in the previous paragraph are "announced" and "modest". His announcements speak of high vision, but the actual achievements - especially in terms of path-breaking legislation - have been small and far between.

There are several reasons for this. First, there was the election cycle. Modi has had practically no respite from state assembly elections from the time he was elected Prime Minister in May. They will continue all the way to February 2015 with the Delhi polls. Second, Modi seems to prefer incrementalism to big-bang changes of the 1991 type. And third, just when he was getting ready to push through some new laws (on insurance, GST, etc), elements of the Sangh parivar have been acting up, shifting the focus of the media to extraneous issues like conversions and Godse. This has given a handle to his wounded opponents to strike back and block his moves.
This is why 2015 will be a make-or-break year for Narendra Modi. If the negative tides of December 2014 continue into 2015, Modi will have a tough time delivering what he promised the electorate.
[excerpts of a report recd thru rbk]